It's not too early to call it now. In three divisions, we can already predict the 4th place teams in the respective divisions. In fact, we can probably assume that the following teams will finish in 4th place next season...and beyond.

Braves
It wasn't long ago that this time of the year belonged to the Atlanta Braves. Sure, they were usually eliminated without winning the World Series (just one WS win), but the Braves were a post season staple. And they didn't enter the playoffs by nabbing the wildcard. They did so by winning their division for fourteen straight years. This year, the Braves missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season...and it looks as though this playoff drought could last for the foreseeable future. Braves fans may have to get accustomed to 4th place finishes from this team.

There is some young talent on this team, but while players such as Escobar and Jurrjens performed well, others that the Braves counted on did not perform up to expectations, most notably Jo-Jo Reyes, who was 3-11. Jeff Francoeur, seems to have forgotten how to hit, Matt Diaz was lost early to an injury, and Chuck James appears to be regressing. The pitching staff had major injuries to all of its starters, and even if Smoltz and Glavine return from injury, age is starting to take a toll on their bodies and performance. And it's difficult trying to rely on Hudson and Hampton who are capable of hurting themselves when they get dressed in the morning.

The Braves have become a frugal team now, which means that free agency won't extend to Atlanta except for marginal talent at best. And with the Phillies continuing to improve, the Mets free-spending habits, and the Marlins young talented players improving with each season, it's difficult to see the Braves contending for a pennant any time soon.

Reds
How is this team going to replace the production of Dunn and Griffey? Yes, the Reds have a better farm system than most teams, but it will be difficult to replace Dunn and Griffey's production...not to mention, their leadership. A good young nucleus is in place with the likes of Bruce, Votto, Phillips, and Volquez, but their pitching staff remains a question mark. Harang and Arroyo, the two veterans, have been hit-and-miss. Both are candidates to be dealt at some point, but that would weaken the rotation. Homer Bailey is no longer a sure bet to succeed, and Johnny Cueto wilted down the stretch. The Reds don't sign free agents unless they are non-tendered free agents that no one else wants.

The Reds need to follow their present course. It is the right course, but don't be shocked if the Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers continue to stay above Cincy in the standings for the foreseeable future. The Reds will be fighting the Houston Astros for 4th place in their division for the next two seasons.

Blue Jays
This is a rather easy prediction. The Blue Jays are probably the best 4th place team in MLB history. Toronto has a pretty good team, but in the loaded AL East, it is no better than a 4th place team. The pitching staff is the envy of many teams (though losing Marcum hurts), but this team has little in the way of offense. JP Riccardi has done little to address the problem. The team has little power and no speed, which does not bode well for an AL East team.

The fact is that the Rays probably have THE only team that can stand pat without making a single off-season trade or free agent signing, and they'll still be a 95 win club. The Red Sox have an explosive offense and good young pitchers that will have them contending for years, and the Yankees have the money to go out and buy another pennant. That leaves sole possession of 4th place all to the Blue Jays. Then again, the Orioles are improving...so watch out Toronto.



Court Adjourned!