While listening to Mike and Mike this morning, Steve Phillips made an interesting point. He stated that homerun totals are down significantly over the past two years. In fact, the numbers are very significant. He claimed that the Mitchell Report has scared many MLB players from using steroids and/or HGH. I will go one step further and say that the Mitchell Report has scared players from using supplements, vitamins, anti-inflammatory drugs, and anything else they used to maintain their health. Phillips' reasoning made sense, and so I decided to look at the individual numbers closer.

I'm not accusing or insinuating that the players I mention (below) were using performance enhancing drugs. But I would not be surprised if some of them weren't using some sort of supplement or drug to help them maintain their stamina and/or overall good health. Even supplements and vitamins today are risky for players to take/use. The Mitchell Report has changed the way we view baseball, but it may very well have had an impact on current homerun totals as Phillips suggested.

With a quarter of the season just about gone, I've projected player homerun totals for 2008. The following are some players who have seen a dramatic reduction in homerun totals. The last number is their projected HR total for this season:

David Ortiz 54(2006)-35(2007)-28(2008)
Joe Mauer 13-7-0
Michael Cuddyer 24-16-4
Casey Blake 19-18-8
Travis Hafner 42-24-12
Paul Konerko 35-31-20
Jermaine Dye 44-28-24
Mark Teahan 18-7-4
Pudge Rodriguez 13-11-4
Vlad Guerrero 33-27-12
Ryan Howard 58-47-28
Geoff Jenkins 21-8
Jeff Francoeur 29-19-12
JD Drew 20-11-12
Jose Reyes 19-12-8
Carlos Delgado 38-24-20
Carlos Beltran 41-33-12
Aramis Ramirez 38-26-24
Alfonso Soriano 46-33-20
Prince Fielder 50-20
JJ Hardy 26-4
Corey Hart 24-4
Andruw Jones 41-26-4
Derek Jeter 23-19-14-12-4
Brad Hawpe 29-12
Khalil Greene 27-12

Many of these players are highly respected, so their decline in homeruns may be due to other factors. Some may just be in a season-long slump, and could break out at any time. Others are battling Father Time, and are simply in the twilight of their career. Of course, projections are no guarantees. Many of these players will get hot and exceed their projections. I'm not accusing these players of using anything, but I'd sure like to know where their power has gone. I will say that I believe some of the players on this list have, in fact, used something....legal or not, but have stopped using the product for fear of suspension or public perception if exposed. After all...stadiums have not pushed outfield walls further back (in fact, new ballparks are hitter-friendly), and pitchers have not suddenly gotten better. There has to be some explanation for the drop-off in production of these players mentioned. Draw your own conclusions.

Court Adjourned!