Before I begin, let me make one thing very clear, I am a die hard Mets fan. I have been my entire life. I watch every game via mlb.com, I have Met memorabilia throughout my den, and I've raised my kids to be die hard Met fans.
However, trying to think with my head rather than my heart, I don't see any way that this current Met team is capable of beating out Philadelphia for the 2008 NL East title.
In a recent article, Carlos Delgado claimed that the Mets "were the better team" last year, but the painful fact for Met fans is that they weren't. And unfortunately, 2008 does not appear to be any different. Let's take a look, position by position, at the Mets and Phillies and see how they stack up:

Catcher: Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro vs Carlos Ruiz/Chris Coste - If the Mets were to start Castro for most of the time, the edge would go to the Mets, but with Schneider getting most of the playing time, this is a draw between catchers. Sure, Schneider throws out a decent percentage of base stealers, but the Mets have never been very good at holding runners on.
EDGE: Even

1B: Carlos Delgado vs Ryan Howard - Delgado had a poor 2007 while Howard had an MVP type of season. Delgado should rebound to have a decent 2008, but Howard should continue to put up MVP numbers, especially in that ballpark.
EDGE: Phillies

2B: Luis Castillo vs Chase Utley - Utley is an MVP waiting-to-happen. He has yet to hit his prime. Castillo is a spark plug, but has questionable knees, and can't match the offense that Utley can provide. Utley's defense has improved each year as well.
EDGE: Phillies

SS: Jose Reyes vs Jimmy Rollins - Last year at this time, you could have made a case for Jose Reyes, but not anymore. While Reyes wilted down the stretch, Rollins thrived and won the NL MVP Award. No one would take Reyes over Rollins today.
EDGE: Phillies

3B: David Wright vs Greg Dobbs - Dobbs is adequate, but he's no David Wright. Wright continues to be the main man at Shea, and will continue to be so for a long time. The Mets win this position battle hands down.
EDGE: Mets

LF: Moises Alou vs Pat Burrell - If Alou stayed healthy for an entire season, this might be too close to call. But let's face it...Alou will be lucky to play in more than 100 games. Burrell went unnoticed last season, but he hit 30 homeruns and drove in 97 runs. When Utley and Howard went down with injuries, it was Burrell that carried the Phillies on his back. And let's not forget that Burrell is a Met-killer when the teams hook up at Shea. Alou is solid, but poor health gives the Phillies the edge here.
EDGE: Phillies

CF: Carlos Beltran vs Shane Victorino - Beltran is usually good for a 30/30 season at the least. While Victorino is a spark plug for the Phillies, he's no Carlos Beltran. He'll steal more bases, but do little else to compare to Beltran.
EDGE: Mets

RF: Ryan Church vs Geoff Jenkins - In that ballpark, and with that protection in the lineup, Jenkins should hit close to 30 homeruns. In spacious Shea Stadium, Church will be lucky to hit 15 homers. Jenkins defense is a liability, but he should more than make up for errors with his bat. Can Church survive the scrutiny in New York...especially if Lastings Milledge has a good season in Washington? Stay tuned....
EDGE: Phillies

SP: Starters - The Mets should be set with John Maine and Oliver Perez. Both are still young and learning, but progressing. Pedro Martinez returns for a full season. Can his refurbished arm hold up for an entire season? He doesn't have the zip he once did, but his craftiness should net 15 wins if healthy and the bullpen doesn't squander his leads. El Duque is still a health risk (I wish I were his and Alou's doctor). Can he survive a full season? My bet is that he can't. Tom Glavine is gone, so the Mets will turn to Pelfrey or Humber, though there's still talk of foolishly signing Kyle Loshe or Bartolo Colon.
As for the Phillies, they have a less talented staff, but they also have fewer questions. Cole Hamels is a legitimate ace, and Kyle Kendrick is a star in the making (had he been with the Mets, he'd have been stuck at AAA or traded for an over-the-hill player). Jamie Moyer is aging, but still crafty enough to win 12-14 games again. The "Durbin" boys are solid, albeit, unspectacular four and five guys. If Brett Myers returns to the rotation, the Phillies have the edge. Until that happens, we'll call it even.
EDGE: Even

RP: Bullpens - The Mets bullpen imploded last year. Thankfully for Met fans, Mota was shipped out. While signing Matt Wise was a nice move, the Mets added Brian Stokes and Steven Register to the pen. The Mets are counting on Duaner Sanchez to return to form, but they relied on Mota to do the same last year, and look what happened. Sanchez would be a much welcome returnee, but you can't count on a guy coming off an arm injury. Billy Wagner needs to return to form for the Mets, but even he seemed to whither down the stretch.
The Phillies added Brad Lidge, which could be a huge lift or a big bust, depending on how well he does. His numbers were pretty good last season despite negative press. Madson, Condrey, and Romero are decent options in the bullpen, but can be prone to bad streaks. If Lidge does well, these two bullpens are evenly matched.
EDGE: Even

Bench Bench Players - The good news for Met fans is that they acquired a pretty decent outfielder in Angel Pagan. Unfortuantely, you have to wonder why they needed another outfielder to join Chavez, Marlon Anderson, Easley, and (possibly) Gomez. Gotay and Castro are quite capable backups.
The Phillies do not have an impressive bench. Wes Helms is washed up, while Snelling, Taguchi, Coste, and Eric Bruntlett are boarderline AAA players at best. Only Jayson Werth should be considered a super sub.
EDGE: Mets

Managers Willie Randolph vs Charlie Manuel - Both managers have shortcomings when it comes to in-game strategy. Both can be out-managed by a superior manager. While Manuel appears to be a players manager, Randolph seems to be more to himself. The Phillies rallied around Manuel to pull off an amazing feat the last three weeks of the season. The Mets quit on Randolph the last three weeks of the season. I'm not sure how the Mets will have respect for a manager responsible for one of the worst collapses in sports history, but they will try.
EDGE: Phillies

Bottom Line: The Phillies have the edge at most positions, and their offense will be the difference between first and second place. The Mets will be under heavy scrutiny following last year's collapse, and the hope for Met fans is that they don't press early in the season to erase their past mistakes. The key loss for the Phillies is Aaron Rowand. The key losses for the Mets are Glavine, LoDuca, and Shawn Green. They have no experienced replacement for Glavine, a no-hit catcher in Schneider, and a new rightfielder who has had exactly one good season in the majors.
The Phillies are the team to beat, and unless the Mets acquire Johan Santana (Don't count on it), they will have to hope for the NL Wild Card.



Court Adjourned!